opinion

How To Stop A Russian (Or Chinese) Invasion: An Army Of Hobby Drones

Lessons from the middle east show that a $300 weapon can be very effective vs a $3 million defense

Photo by Alessio Soggetti on Unsplash

“Generals are always prepared to fight the last war.” Winston S. Churchill

As recently reported by the Wall Street Journal, the US has been having issues with trying to stop simple hobbyist drones armed with explosives. It is not very cost effective to take down a $300 drone with a $3 million patriot missile (the current strategy) and now places like Saudi Arabia are running out of missiles to combat them. This made me think, why do countries like Ukraine not deploy a similar strategy?

The Turkish TB2 missile-armed drone turned the tide against Russian-backed forces in Syria, Libya and Azerbaijan. Its success has transformed the geopolitics of the area. These missile drones cost around $5 million (compared to a $220 million US Hawk drone). The TB2 may be far more utilitarian, but is incredibly cost-effective in comparison. Sound familiar? The “hobby” drone strategy simply takes this a step further.

The Concept

Let’s do some math: for the cost of one Russian T14 tank, Ukraine could arm somewhere between 3–15 thousand drones depending on cost/application. Armed with a cheap claymore mine, a drone would have a 60-degree casualty radius at 100 meters. As a hobby shooter, hitting an erratically moving target that small at 100 meters would be very difficult (let alone a swarm of them). Armed with something similar to an anti-tank mine, a swarm of kamikaze drones could easily overwhelm armored vehicles. When a small bird can compromise even the most advanced military jets, a network of drones could create effective no-fly zones. Support these with a few Turkish TB2 missile drones and you have a significant and cost-effective threat.

Even a small country could afford to produce millions of these drones. Drones utilizing AI can be trained to automatically take out targets while flying erratically (making them very difficult to hit).

Countermeasures

As mentioned above, the current strategy is to use $3 million missiles to shoot them down. While this may temporarily work against a small insurgent force, it would not be feasible against a country aggressively using millions of drones.

Jamming is another strategy that has been used but is easily countered. From the Wall Street Journal:

But jamming quickly became outmoded. Drones’ anti-jamming capabilities improved, and attackers adapted by putting drones on autopilot, which curtailed communications and rendered jamming ineffective. Jamming has other drawbacks, because it can interfere with the signals of friendly military or civilian equipment.

Using onboard artificial intelligence, a drone’s “autopilot” would even be more effective than a human controlled drone.

Now the US is developing a new laser defense system. It was reported to be able to take out 90% of its targets. How long will it be before Russia or China has similar technology? Ignoring the issues with having to develop a new technology from scratch, this strategy has three major problems:

1. 90% is not 100%.
2. I would be willing to bet that it was not tested on swarms of more than a few dozen and can be overwhelmed with large numbers.
3. An AI autopilot could advance while rapidly spinning, making it very difficult to focus a laser on a single spot. This is a strategy that made anti-missile laser defenses obsolete. Sure, the laser may still be able to take down drones, but likely at a reduced speed, thus dropping the reported 90% efficiency even further.

Perhaps the most effective strategy would be to use anti-drone drones. The problem is that the drone strategy is defensive in nature. You still need people if you are planning on occupying an enemy city and it is the ambush/swarm tactics where a drone really shines

Takeaway

I hope there is still time for Ukraine. I know there is still time for Taiwan and other vulnerable countries. I would gladly contribute to an effort to develop something like this.

This strategy seems much more sound then attempting to go toe-to-toe with a much larger military by using similar weapons or hoping that other countries will come and save you.